A Leadership Group (including Vital’s Fund Manager Aaron Hockly), Technical Working Group (including Vital’s Sustainability Associate Abbey Pickering) and Te Ao Māori Roopu, each consisting of health sector experts, were established to support and oversee this work.

The sector scenarios contained within the report provide alternative views of the future grounded in key drivers of change and uncertainties. They are considered plausible stories about conditions and events which may occur, however, they are not presented as predictions about what will occur.

These scenarios have been developed to aid decision making, and provide a way for organisations in the health sector to consider and challenge their strategies and future plans. These organisations include climate reporting entities (CREs) such as Vital, who are required to undertake scenario analysis in line with the External Reporting Board’s (XRB) reporting standard NZ CS 1.

Under NZ CS 1, the XRB defines a climate scenario as:

‘A plausible, challenging description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships covering both physical and transition risks in an integrated manner’ .

Under these standards, the XRB requires the development of, at minimum, three climate change scenarios. The scenarios presented are:

• Scenario 1: A ‘Hothouse world’ (high-warming scenario).
• Scenario 2: A ‘delayed and disorderly’ transition (additional scenario).
• Scenario 3: An ‘ambitious and orderly’ transition (Paris Agreement-aligned transition scenario).

The report can be accessed in this link.